The Syrian civil struggle has returned.
On November 27, Syria’s “Navy Opposition Command” launched a recent offensive towards the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Following combating within the Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama governorates, the rebels seized the nation’s second largest metropolis of Aleppo by Monday. As Center Jap leaders engaged in a flurry of diplomacy, Assad’s allies Iran and Russia pledged assist to his regime, and Syrian and Russian struggle jets have begun putting targets in rebel-held territory in northwestern Syria.
For all sensible functions although, the Syrian civil struggle had by no means ended.
In 2020, virtually 5 years in the past, following the final main counter-offensive of the Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian Arab Military (SAA), the insurgent teams had been pushed to the far north of the nation, and a negotiated ceasefire got here into pressure. An appropriate stalemate had prevailed ever since — regardless that frequent clashes continued among the many actors within the struggle.
So, who’re the rebels who’ve now taken Aleppo and are advancing past?
The combination of actors in Syria is so various that the time period “rebels” is commonly used for analytical comfort. Among the many actors main the present offensive, three are most vital.
* First is the Hayat Tahrir al-Shaam (HTS), a bunch that occupies the liminal area between jihadist terrorism and separatist militancy. The HTS, which is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, was based as Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda’s department in Syria, however which broke from the guardian organisation in 2016 to type the Jabhat Fateh al-Shaam (JFS). The change in title was each symbolic and substantial, because it now stood for liberation of Shaam, or the Levant. Jolani on the time sought to scale back the gap from the separatist Syrian opposition teams.
By 2017, after merging with quite a few different teams, the JFS turned the HTS, which had a localized operational focus distinct from al-Qaeda’s world jihadist outlook. Illustrative of the evolving place of the HTS is the truth that whereas the US State Division designated it as a terror group in 2018, the US stopped concentrating on Jolani himself by August that 12 months, as the previous American Ambassador to Iraq, James Jeffrey, famous in 2021.
* Second are the Kurdish militias organised because the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), probably the most highly effective armed pressure in Syria after the SAA.
The SDF is the army arm of the Kurdish coalition that has autonomously ruled a big a part of northeastern Syria (throughout the Euphrates river) in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Aleppo since 2012 when the SAA withdrew. The SDF’s uneasy coexistence with Assad’s forces has typically resulted in armed skirmishes, however its principal enemy during the last decade has been ISIS and its affiliated jihadist teams.
Within the ongoing struggle, the Kurds, whereas warding off the Syrian Military, are additionally having to protect towards the Turkey-backed militias and the HTS, regardless of the latter’s assurances on not attacking the Kurdish forces. The SDF loved important US backing throughout the civil struggle, till Washington abruptly withdrew most of its materials and personnel assist underneath the primary Trump administration.
* Third is the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), which grew out of the Free Syrian Military shaped by defecting Syrian troopers in 2011, a Turkish-backed pressure that’s fiercely against each Assadist Syria in addition to the Kurdish SDF.
The SNA has lengthy been Ankara’s most popular ally for its personal operations in Syria. The HTS and SNA are collectively finishing up the present offensive towards the Syrian Military by way of their semi-unified “Navy Operations Command” that was shaped in 2019.
And who’re the exterior actors backing the rebels?
The exterior actors in Syria are hardly ‘exterior’. As an illustration, Turkey will not be merely a 3rd state combating in Syria by way of its proxies — during the last 5 years, the Turkish occupation of northern Syria has been quasi-normalised, which makes Turkey a uniquely resident energy that governs territory in Damascus’s stead.
Turkey’s encouragement of the rebels is a perform in equal components of its pursuits towards the (US backed) Kurds, and the regime in Damascus. In 2016 (after which in 2018, 2019), as Assad’s forces pushed again towards ISIS with assist from Russia and the Lebanese Hezbollah, Turkey exploited the chance to militarily pressure a buffer between itself and Kurdish managed northern Syria. Ankara perceives a strong menace from Kurdish militias, and considers most of them terror teams.
Turkey’s enabling of the resurgence of the civil struggle has been helped by the truth that the US has (largely) stood by. Washington has restricted incentive to test a Turkish-backed offensive towards Assad, who’s backed by Moscow and Tehran. The widespread anti-ISIS goal that had resulted in peculiar cases of American, Russian, Syrian, and Iranian forces combating the identical enemy previously, has now withered away.
However why has the civil struggle restarted at this second?
The renewed struggle in Syria amidst the raging battle within the Center East is greater than only a damaged home windows impact. An uncommon confluence of worldwide conflicts has helped create room for the armed insurgency to mount its offensive towards Assad. Two new wars in Europe and Lebanon/ Gaza have helped resurrect the older one in Syria.
During the last three years, the invasion of Ukraine has strained Russia’s army positions and sources in Syria. Because it was Moscow’s entry in 2016 that helped Assad flip the tables within the struggle, so a pressure on Russia has come as a chance for the Syrian armed opposition.
Alternatively, the Iran-backed floor proxies which have fought alongside Assad’s forces in Syria — particularly Hezbollah — have been considerably weakened as a consequence of Israel’s air and floor marketing campaign in Lebanon, and the decimation of Hezbollah’s senior management. Hezbollah is probably probably the most conspicuous absence within the renewed struggle in Syria, vindicating, at the least for now, the rebels’ timing of the offensive.
Observe that Hezbollah’s involvement within the earlier section of Syria’s civil struggle helped Damascus considerably towards each ISIS in addition to the rebels, particularly in Aleppo (which they’ve now re-seized).
And what does this new section of the struggle imply for Assad himself?
By mid-2012, with 100,000 killed within the struggle and the armed opposition closing in on Damascus, the previous UN observer mission chief in Syria had declared that Assad’s days had been numbered. Eleven years later, Assad was welcomed again with some pomp into the Arab League because the decisive winner of the struggle.
However whereas this spotlights the dangers of writing Assad’s political obituary, it’s to be famous that his victory was by no means full — northern Syria remained underneath Turkish management, and the SNA/HTS continued to be a menace to him. This is likely one of the main the explanation why Assad himself has remained restrained in his anti-Israel dedication throughout the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Regardless of Assad’s inextricable relationship with Tehran, Syria’s Arab neighbours Saudi Arabia and the UAE have an curiosity in checking renewed instability in Syria. This isn’t least as a consequence of their unease with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey. Whereas capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi search for regional stability as they search to diversify economically, Ankara — which has been saved out of cross-regional grand initiatives just like the India-Center East-Europe Financial Hall (IMEC) — has sufficient motive to say its regional heft as a geopolitical maverick.
India has lengthy stood by Assad in Syria, and has traditionally supported Russia’s army involvement. The sixth Spherical of India-Syria International Workplace Consultations came about in New Delhi on November 29, two days after the civil struggle resurged. Whereas a number of components affect India’s place, it principally stems from New Delhi’s desire for steady political actors within the area.
(The creator is a Analysis Affiliate on the Council for Strategic and Protection Analysis, New Delhi)
