By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu
With hostile Turkish-backed teams mobilising towards them in Syria’s north, and Damascus dominated by a gaggle pleasant to Ankara, Syria’s essential Kurdish factions are on the again foot as they search to protect political features carved out throughout 13 years of battle.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds have to date been among the many few winners of the Syrian battle, controlling almost 1 / 4 of the nation and main a strong armed group that may be a key U.S. ally in countering Islamic State.
However the energy steadiness has tilted towards them for the reason that Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat advised Reuters.
The seismic change in Syria is predicted to yield deeper Turkish sway simply as a change of U.S. administration is elevating questions over how lengthy Washington will preserve backing the nation’s Kurdish-led forces.
For Turkey, the Kurdish factions symbolize a nationwide safety menace. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Employees Social gathering (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency towards the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and different powers.
The Syrian Kurdish teams “are in deep, deep bother”, mentioned Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide, a U.S.-based assume tank.
“The steadiness has shifted essentially in Syria to the benefit of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey appears decided to use this to the fullest.”
The shift has been mirrored in renewed preventing for management of the north, the place Turkey-backed armed teams referred to as the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) have made navy advances towards the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official within the Kurdish-led regional administration, advised Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Social gathering oppressed Kurds for many years, offered an opportunity to sew the fragmented nation again collectively.
He mentioned the administration is prepared for dialogue with Turkey, however the battle within the north confirmed Ankara had “very dangerous intentions”.
“This may definitely push the area in the direction of … a brand new battle,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan mentioned on Friday he anticipated overseas states would withdraw help for Kurdish fighters following Assad’s toppling, as Ankara seeks to isolate the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheaded the SDF alliance.
Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official mentioned the basis reason behind the battle is “not Turkey’s view in the direction of the area; it’s that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organisation”.
“The PKK/YPG components should lay down their arms and depart Syria,” the official mentioned.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in a Reuters interview on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the primary time, saying they’d helped battle Islamic State and would return house within the occasion a complete ceasefire was agreed with Turkey. He denied any organisational ties with the PKK.
FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM
In the meantime, in Damascus, the brand new management is displaying heat in the direction of Ankara and indicating it needs to convey all Syria again underneath central authority – a possible problem to the decentralisation Kurds favour.
Whereas Turkey offers direct backing to the SNA, it together with different states deems HTS a terrorist group due to its al Qaeda previous.
Regardless of this, Ankara is believed to have vital sway over the group. A senior Western diplomat mentioned: “The Turks can clearly affect them greater than anybody else”.
HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa advised a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster was “not solely the victory of the Syrian individuals, but additionally the Turkish individuals”.
The Turkish official mentioned HTS was not and by no means had been underneath Ankara’s management, calling it a construction “we had been speaking with on account of circumstances” and including many Western states had been additionally doing so.
Syrian Kurdish teams led by the Democratic Union Social gathering (PYD) and the affiliated YPG militia took management of a lot of the north after the rebellion towards Assad started in 2011. They established their very own administration, whereas insisting their purpose was autonomy, not independence.
Their politics, emphasising socialism and feminism, differ starkly from HTS’ Islamism.
Their space grew as U.S.-led forces partnered with the SDF within the marketing campaign towards Islamic State, capturing Arab-majority areas.
The Turkey-backed SNA teams stepped up their marketing campaign towards the SDF as Assad was being toppled, seizing the town of Manbij on Dec. 9
Washington brokered a ceasefire, however the SDF has mentioned Turkey and its allies haven’t abided by it, and a Turkish defence ministry official mentioned there was no such deal.
U.S. help for the SDF has been a degree of rigidity with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key companion in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will attempt to use this era to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF continues to be guarding tens of 1000’s of detainees linked to the militant group.
Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler mentioned final weekend that Turkey noticed no signal of an Islamic State resurgence in Syria. On Friday, Turkey’s overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, advised his German counterpart throughout talks in Ankara that options wanted to be discovered for the administration of camps and prisons the place the detainees are being held.
Individually, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Close to Japanese Affairs Barbara Leaf mentioned on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to search out “a managed transition when it comes to SDF’s position in that a part of the nation.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has mentioned that U.S. troops will keep on in Syria, however President-elect Donald Trump might take away them when he takes workplace on Jan. 20.
LETTER TO TRUMP
Throughout his first administration, Trump tried to tug out of Syria however confronted stress at house and from U.S. allies.
In a Dec. 17 letter to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, high Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed mentioned Turkey was getting ready to invade the northeast earlier than he takes workplace.
Turkey’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in securing stability and preventing terrorism”, she wrote. “We consider you could have the ability to forestall this disaster.”
Trump’s transition group didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark.
Trump mentioned on Dec. 16 that Turkey will “maintain the important thing” to what occurs in Syria however has not introduced his plans for U.S. forces stationed there.
“The Kurds are in an unenviable place,” mentioned Joshua Landis, a Syria professional on the College of Oklahoma. “As soon as Damascus consolidates its energy, it’s going to transfer on the area. The U.S. cannot stay there endlessly.”
HTS chief Sharaa advised British broadcaster the BBC that Kurds had been “a part of our individuals” and “there must be no division of Syria”, including arms must be solely within the state’s arms.
Sharaa acknowledged one in all Turkey’s essential issues – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and mentioned: “We don’t settle for that Syrian lands threaten and destabilize Turkey or different locations.”
He pledged to work by means of dialogue and negotiations to search out “a peaceable method to unravel the issue,” saying he believed preliminary contacts had been established “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organisation”.
Kait, the Kurdish official, mentioned his administration wished “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as purple traces. The SDF can be “a nucleus of the approaching Syrian military,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his Reuters interview, confirmed that contact had been established with HTS to keep away from clashes between their forces however mentioned Ankara would attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.
Nonetheless, he mentioned there was robust help from worldwide events, together with the U.S.-led coalition, for the SDF becoming a member of “the brand new political part” in Damascus, calling it “a terrific alternative”.
“We’re getting ready, after a complete ceasefire between us and between Turkey and the affiliated factions, to hitch this part,” he mentioned.
This text was produced by Reuters information company. It has not been edited by World South World.
