why Assad’s military did not battle in Syria • International South World

By Maya Gebeily, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Ahmed Rasheed and Timour Azhari

Twenty-three-year-old Syrian navy conscript Farhan al-Khouli was badly paid and demoralized. His military outpost in scrubland close to the rebel-held metropolis of Idlib ought to have had 9 troopers however it simply had three, after some had bribed the commanding officers to flee serving, he mentioned.

And, of the 2 conscripts with him, one was regarded by his superiors as mentally unfit and never trusted with a gun, Khouli mentioned.

For years, the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had sat behind the close by frontline, with Syria’s lengthy civil conflict frozen. However on Wednesday, Nov. 27, Khouli’s commanding officer – at one other submit behind the frontlines – referred to as his cell phone to inform him a insurgent convoy was heading his approach.

The officer mentioned the unit ought to stand its floor and battle.

As an alternative, Khouli put his telephone on airplane mode, became civilian garments, dropped his rifle and fled. As he walked alongside the street again south, different teams of troopers have been abandoning their posts too.

“I seemed again and noticed everybody strolling behind me. After they noticed one particular person flee, everybody began to toss their weapons and run,” he advised Reuters this week in Damascus, the place he has discovered work at a horse secure.

In rather less than two weeks, the rebels would sweep into the capital Damascus, toppling former president Bashar al-Assad as his military merely melted away. The rout abruptly ended a 13-year battle that had killed a whole lot of 1000’s of individuals.

Reuters spoke to a dozen sources together with two Syrian military deserters, three senior Syrian officers, two Iraqi militia commanders working with the Syrian military, a Syrian safety supply and a supply aware of the considering of Lebanese group Hezbollah, one in every of Assad’s essential navy allies.

The sources, together with intelligence paperwork Reuters present in an deserted navy workplace within the capital, painted an in depth image of how Assad’s once-feared military had been hollowed out by the demoralization of troops, heavy reliance on overseas allies significantly for the command construction, and rising anger throughout the ranks at rampant corruption.

A lot of the sources requested to not be named as a result of they weren’t authorised to speak to media or feared retribution.

Because the conflict started in 2011, Assad’s military command had come to rely upon allied Iranian and Iran-funded Lebanese and Iraqi forces to offer one of the best combating models in Syria, all of the senior sources mentioned.

Crucially, a lot of the Syrian navy’s operational command construction was run by Iranian navy advisors and their militia allies, they mentioned.

However lots of the Iranian navy advisers had left this spring after Israeli air strikes on Damascus, and the remainder departed final week, mentioned the Iraqi militia commanders, who labored alongside them.

Hezbollah fighters and commanders had already principally left in October to give attention to the escalating conflict in Lebanon with Israel, the supply aware of Hezbollah considering mentioned.

The Syrian military’s personal central command and management centre not functioned effectively after the Iranian and Hezbollah officers left and the navy lacked a defence technique, significantly for Syria’s second metropolis of Aleppo, a Syrian colonel, two Syrian safety sources and a Lebanese safety supply aware of the Syrian navy mentioned.

In contrast, rebels within the northwest, on paper numerically far weaker than the military, had spent years consolidating beneath a single operations room that coordinated their teams and models in battle, an Worldwide Disaster Group report mentioned after the autumn of Aleppo.

Reuters was unable to contact a present consultant of the armed forces. Syria’s new strongest determine, HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa advised Reuters on Wednesday he would dissolve Syria’s safety forces. Iran’s mission to the United Nations, the Iraqi militias and Hezbollah didn’t reply to requests for remark.

ALEPPO

As Aleppo got here beneath assault in late November, military models weren’t given a transparent plan however have been advised to work it out for themselves or to fall again to the strategic metropolis of Homs to attempt to regroup, two Syrian safety sources mentioned.

Aleppo fell with no main battle on Nov. 29, simply two days after the offensive started, sending shockwaves via the navy, three senior Syrian officers mentioned.

What was left on the bottom was a Syrian military severely missing in cohesion, all of the sources mentioned, describing a number of models that have been undermanned as a result of officers have been accepting bribes to let troopers off responsibility, or had advised troopers to go house and have been accumulating their salaries themselves.

In 2020, the military had 130,000 personnel, in keeping with assume tank IISS’ Army Steadiness report, describing it as considerably depleted by the lengthy civil conflict and remodeled into an irregularly structured, militia-style organisation targeted on inside safety.

Within the days forward of the regime’s collapse on Sunday, america had data of broad ranges of desertions and navy forces altering sides, in addition to some components fleeing to Iraq, a U.S. official, talking on situation of anonymity, mentioned.

Reuters couldn’t set up the general manpower scarcity within the navy or present power power.

The Syrian military sources described officers and troops alike as demoralised by pay that was constantly low even after painful navy victories earlier within the conflict and by reviews, which Reuters couldn’t confirm, that Assad’s shut household have been rising immensely wealthy.

On Nov. 28, the Basic Command of the Military and Armed Forces issued a telegram, ordering all troops to be on full fight readiness, in keeping with a navy doc discovered by Reuters at an Air Intelligence workplace in Damascus.

In an indication the regime was determined, Syria’s Air Intelligence Directorate, a key company near the Assad household, accused its males of “laxity” at checkpoints all through the nation after one was overrun by rebels within the south on Dec. 1, and warned of punishment “with out leniency” if they didn’t battle, the doc seen by Reuters exhibits.

Regardless of the orders and threats, growing numbers of troopers and officers started to abandon, all of the sources mentioned.

As an alternative of confronting the rebels, and even unarmed protesters, troopers have been seen by residents of Syrian cities, and in lots of movies that started circulating on-line, abandoning their posts, turning into civilian garments and going house.

Reuters journalists coming into Syria on Sunday discovered military uniforms nonetheless strewn throughout Damascus streets.

OFFICERS

The corruption and poor morale went up via the ranks.

Many midranking officers had been rising more and more indignant in recent times that the military’s sacrifices and successes in the course of the conflict weren’t mirrored in higher pay, situations and sources, two serving, one not too long ago retired and one defected officer mentioned.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed a deal that froze the frontlines after Assad retook all main cities and the principle freeway linking Damascus to Aleppo, additional partitioning a rustic additionally cut up by Kurdish-controlled areas.

However Syria’s financial system continued to reel from U.S. sanctions and diminished overseas assist, mentioned Aron Lund, a fellow at Center East-focused assume tank Century Worldwide. Rampant inflation ensued.

“Issues simply bought worse for everybody, apart from the oligarchs and elites round Assad. That appears to have been extremely demoralizing,” Lund mentioned.

Whereas decrees in 2021 roughly doubled navy salaries to maintain up with inflation that topped 100% that yr, shopping for energy quickly fell anyway because the Syrian pound crashed towards the greenback.

Col. Makhlouf Makhlouf, who served in an engineering brigade, mentioned that if anyone complained about corruption they have been referred to as in for questioning at a navy court docket – one thing that had occurred to him greater than as soon as.

“We have been residing in a scary society. We have been afraid to say a phrase,” Makhlouf mentioned. He had been stationed in Hama however abandoned earlier than the town fell to the rebels on Dec. 5, he mentioned in an interview in Aleppo on Tuesday.

Anger had been constructing significantly over the previous yr or so, a serving senior navy intelligence officer mentioned, saying there was “rising resentment towards Assad,” together with amongst core high-ranking supporters from his Alawite minority group.

YEARS OF DECAY

Khouli’s navy expertise illustrated the military’s issues – and helps clarify his lack of loyalty.

He was drafted for the compulsory 18-month service at age 19, after having paid-off an officer to delay his service for a yr.

When his service interval expired, he was ordered to stay within the military indefinitely. He abandoned however was later picked up by a patrol, put in jail for 52 days after which despatched to the distant outpost close to Idlib.

He was paid 500,000 Syrian kilos ($40) a month. Military rations have been typically pillaged earlier than arriving. Generally his total pay went on shopping for extra meals, he mentioned.

Comrades with cash would pay officers $100, which he lacked, to get out of service, Khouli mentioned. Khouli’s brigade was speculated to have 80 troopers, however the truth is there have been solely 60, he mentioned.

He described dangerous remedy from officers, together with being assigned heavy guide labour digging earth berms in each highly regarded and really chilly climate and through nights.

Reuters was not in a position to confirm independently the small print of his experiences.

One former main described the usage of compelled conscripts as a “deadly mistake”.

A former military logistics serviceman, Zuhair, 28, mentioned in an interview in Damascus on Tuesday he had seen officers steal and promote electrical energy turbines and gasoline. “All they cared about was utilizing their positions to complement themselves,” he mentioned.

He had fought for Assad for years however he had cousins among the many rebels and after they superior, he cheered, he mentioned. “I do not know tips on how to describe how glad I’m,” he mentioned.

RELIANCE ON ALLIES

To battle again the sooner opposition rebellion, which started with protests in 2011, Assad relied on allies. Russia despatched jets that bombed insurgent positions, Iran despatched navy advisers and fighters from Hezbollah. Iran-backed militias from Iraq and one other group it fashioned from Afghan Shi’ite fighters additionally got here.

Their combating talent and well-being contrasted with Syria’s personal troopers. An Iraqi militia commander serving close to Aleppo mentioned he knew of a Syrian platoon meant to include 30 troopers that had solely eight current.

The militia typically invited these troopers to eat with them out of pity on the poor situation of their rations, the commander mentioned.

Hezbollah and allied militias regarded the common Syrian forces with little greater than contempt, the Iraqi militia commanders and a supply aware of Hezbollah considering mentioned.

They didn’t belief them for necessary operations and sometimes wouldn’t battle alongside them, these sources added.

OCT. 7 HAMAS ATTACKS

Iran’s presence in Syria was curtailed within the months following the assault on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, the Iraqi militia commander based mostly close to Aleppo and an Iraqi navy adviser based mostly in Damascus mentioned.

Israel’s response to Hamas’ incursion included escalating strikes on Iran-linked targets, together with in Syria.

On April 1, a strike killed prime commanders from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at a constructing in an Iranian consular compound in Damascus. Israel has not confirmed or denied duty for the strike.

The Iraqi sources each mentioned the variety of Revolutionary Guards commanders current in Syria dropped considerably after that. One mentioned Syria’s navy operations command turned ineffective because of this, a scenario exacerbated by the withdrawal of Hezbollah in October.

Russia performed air strikes on rebels as they superior on Hama and Homs, each side mentioned on the time, however in contrast to in earlier phases of the conflict there have been no efficient floor forces in a position to profit.

By Saturday, Dec. 7, Russia was calling for a political transition. The Kremlin and Russia overseas ministry declined to remark for this story. Russia, the Kremlin mentioned on Tuesday, had “spent loads of effort” to assist Assad in the course of the civil conflict however the scenario had then deteriorated.

In Aleppo, Syrian forces had relied on Hezbollah to offer operational command, an Alawite Syrian military colonel mentioned. With out Iranian advisers or Hezbollah, the military couldn’t maintain onto territory close to the town, the colonel, the Iraqi commander and the Iraqi adviser mentioned.

Iraqi militias despatched extra fighters to Syria final week, however they discovered all of the contact channels to Iranian navy advisors had been lower, the Iraqi commander mentioned.

On Friday, after rebels had taken the town of Hama, the Iraqi teams have been advised to depart, he mentioned.

“The battle for Syria was misplaced from day one,” the Iraqi navy adviser added.